Wednesday, January 7, 2026

 

Yes, there is a body of academic and analytical work supporting the claim that Cuba's reported infant mortality rate (IMR) has been artificially lowered through classification practices, particularly by reclassifying early neonatal deaths (deaths in the first week after a live birth) as late fetal deaths or stillbirths (which are not counted in IMR).

Key Studies and Evidence

The primary research comes from health economists and demographers:

  • Roberto M. Gonzalez (2015 paper in Cuban Studies): Analyzed 2004 data and found Cuba's ratio of late fetal deaths to early neonatal deaths was ~6:1, far higher than the typical 1:1 to 3:1 range in comparable countries (including Latin America). This outlier suggests systematic reclassification to exclude deaths from IMR calculations. Adjusting for a more typical ratio, Gonzalez estimated Cuba's true IMR at 7.45–11.46 per 1,000 live births (vs. official 5.8)—up to 92% higher.
  • Berdine, Geloso, and Powell (2018 in Health Policy and Planning): Built on Gonzalez's work, arguing that pressure on doctors to meet government IMR targets (with penalties for failure) incentivizes reclassification. They note ethnographic reports of coercive practices, like forced abortions for fetuses with abnormalities to avoid potential infant deaths raising rates.
  • Similar patterns noted in earlier demographic studies (e.g., Velkoff and Miller on Soviet-era discrepancies) and WHO references to correlated fetal/neonatal rates.

These adjustments would place Cuba's IMR closer to or above regional peers, reducing the gap with developed nations like the U.S.

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  Yes, there is a body of academic and analytical work supporting the claim that Cuba's reported infant mortality rate (IMR) has been a...