Surprise: After Election BLS Employment Numbers Revised Downward

 

In its preliminary estimate issued in August, the BLS announced that US payrolls in the year through March will probably be revised down by 818,000 — or around 68,000 on average each month. The final numbers will be released with the January 2025 employment report 

on Feb. 7.  

The gross miscalculation was the largest in 15 years, 

The Philadelphia Fed early benchmark estimates shows that the weaker employment trend likely extended into the second quarter. They found that payroll jobs in the 50 states and the District of Columbia were down 0.1% compared to the current BLS count that shows a 1.1% gain.  

By state, the regional Fed bank estimates that largest revision of employment for the nine-month period ended in June will come from California, where it sees a downward revision of 172,700 jobs. Payrolls in Texas may be revised down by 112,100. An extended forecast by the BLS to the third quarter show further declines as well.

The early estimates indicated lower employment figures in 25 states, higher changes in two, and small changes in all others. The Fed bank takes state payrolls figures from the BLS and adjusts them using the more comprehensive yet less-timely quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data. The goal is to help produce a more up-to-date estimate of the government’s state benchmark revisions.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/12/12/philadelphia-fed-estimates-weaker-second-quarter-us-payrolls/