Individual-level models incorporating risk factors can classify people as being at high or low risk of death by suicide, but the predictive accuracy of these models is close to zero, making targeted prevention efforts challenging.5
5.Belsher BE Smolenski DJ Pruitt LD et al.
Prediction models for suicide attempts and deaths: a systematic review and simulation.
JAMA Psychiatry. 2019; 76: 642-651
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Preventive Medicine
Volume 152, Part 1, November 2021, 106353
Can we predict or prevent suicide?: An update
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Joel Paris
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2020.106353
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Abstract
This article updates a 2006 review of empirical data concerning whether clinicians can predict whether patients will die by suicide, or whether fatality can be prevented. Based on further empirical data, a negative conclusion remains justified. There is good evidence that treatment programs, using psychotherapy and medication, can reduce suicide attempts. But people who die by suicide are a distinct population from attempters, and those at high risk do not necessarily present for treatment. Research on suicide prevention has not shown that fatalities among patients can be predicted, or that clinical interventions can reduce the risk. The strongest evidence for prevention derives from reducing access to means. Population-based strategies are more effective than high-risk strategies focusing on patients with suicidal ideas or attempts.
Show more
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Cite
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2020.106353
Get rights and content
Abstract
This article updates a 2006 review of empirical data concerning whether clinicians can predict whether patients will die by suicide, or whether fatality can be prevented. Based on further empirical data, a negative conclusion remains justified. There is good evidence that treatment programs, using psychotherapy and medication, can reduce suicide attempts. But people who die by suicide are a distinct population from attempters, and those at high risk do not necessarily present for treatment. Research on suicide prevention has not shown that fatalities among patients can be predicted, or that clinical interventions can reduce the risk. The strongest evidence for prevention derives from reducing access to means. Population-based strategies are more effective than high-risk strategies focusing on patients with suicidal ideas or attempts.
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