Murder Rates Higher in Trump States 2020, Biden States 2021, Biden Counties 2020-21

Murder Rates Higher in Trump States & Biden Counties

On March 30, California Gov. Gavin Newsom released a video stating that “blue states have lower murder rates” than red states. His claim was based on a 2023 study by the center-left organization Third Way, titled “The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem,” which reported that eight of the 10  states with the nation’s highest murder rates in 2020 were won by Donald Trump. In fact, these mostly southern states have long had the nation’s highest murder rates. 

But the numbers are presented selectively. Newsom is correct that the average murder rate in states that voted for Biden in 2020 was 5.099 per 100,000 people compared with 6.962 for states that voted for Trump – a 27% lower rate. Including Washington, D.C., in the list of places that voted for Biden raises the blue state rate to 5.987.   

One year, 2020, told one story about red and blue state murders, the next quite another.

Crime Prevention Research Center

In 2021, the average murder rate for states supporting Biden was 10.8, and 7.3 for those that supported Trump – a 48% higher rate.  But 7000 police agencies accounting for 35% of the population didn’t report crime data to the FBI in 2021 .  Among the missing jurisdictions are two huge high-homicide cities: New York and Los Angeles. Their absence also affects state-level data. Most of the missing jurisdictions appear to be Democrat-run areas with some of the largest increases and thus the increase in murders in Democrat jurisdictions might be underestimated. 

There is a second, perhaps even more important qualification to state-to-state comparisons of gun violence: controlling crime is primarily a local decision. While state legislatures enact the criminal penalties for different offenses, local governments set the policies that determine whether someone is arrested and convicted. Cities and counties set spending on police and sheriff departments and policing policies. Most states have local elections for district attorneys and trial court judges. In the last few years, many Democrat district attorneys have been accused of going soft on violent criminals. They may also not request bond for criminals. Judges have also released large numbers of inmates from many local jails over the last few years. 

Higher murder rates in Trump states are driven by the murder rates in Biden counties.

Crime Prevention Research Center

The consequences of those factors are stark. Original research by the Crime Prevention Research Center shows that violent crime is higher in U.S. counties that voted for Biden than in those that voted for Trump. 

For example, this more granular analysis of the 2020 baseline used by Newsom and Third Way shows that the murder rate for counties that Biden won is much higher than for the counties that Trump won – 5.97 versus 2.58 per 100,000 people – 131% higher. And the county breakdown clearly shows that the higher murder rates in Trump states are driven by the murder rates in Biden counties. Unfortunately, we can’t break this down for 2021 because the FBI didn’t report the data. 

Breaking out large counties with over 100,000 people, which is where 88% of murders in the U.S. occur, shows a similar, though even more extreme, difference. The murder rate data for counties that Biden won is much higher than for those that Trump won. 

Counties with over 100,000 people, where 88% of murders in the U.S. occur.

Crime Prevention Research Center

John Lott was source for some  info in this posting.  Wish that it was someone else.  He’s known to support gun rights and be rather conservative. (But I have now seen the same info at Heritage so my concern about John Lott was unwarranted and  perhaps unfair.  )