Friday, December 10, 2021

Predicting Suicide -- Little Progress

 A number of suicide prediction tools have been developed to help target patients for preventive suicide  interventions. However, low sensitivity and low positive predictive value have led critics to argue that these tools have no clinical value.

Kessler, R.C., Bossarte, R.M., Luedtke, A. et al. Suicide prediction models: a critical review of recent research with recommendations for the way forward. Mol Psychiatry 25, 168–179 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41380-019-0531-0

Positive predictive value will tell you the odds of your having a disease if you have a positive result. This can be useful in letting you know if you should panic or not. On the other hand, the sensitivity of a test is defined as the proportion of people with the disease who will have a positive result.

The academic literature seems to indicate that little progress has been made in predicting suicide.

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